Shirky: Did believing instead of voting) sink Dean in Iowa?

Clay Shirky’s managed another thoughtful and even provocative piece on Howard Dean’s disappointing performance in the Iowa primaries and the role social software may (or may not) have played.
Some excerpts:
“Would you vote for Howard Dean?” and “Will you vote for Howard Dean?”
are two different questions, and it may be that a lot of people who
“would” vote for Dean, in some hypothetical world where you could vote
in the same way you can make a political donation on Amazon, didn’t
actually vote for him when it meant skipping dinner with friends to
drive downtown in the freezing cold and venture into some church
basement with people who might prefer some other candidate to Dean.
(snip)
What I wonder is whether Dean has accidentally created a
movement (where what counts is believing) instead of a campaign (where
what counts is voting.)
And (if that’s true) I wonder if his use of social software helped
create that problem.”
More here.