Chris Schroeder: Will pay for performance ads take over web advertising?

Mediapost article today by Chris Schroeder, vice president, strategy for The Washington Post Company. Schroeder writes: “Online search has let a genie forever out of the bottle-pay-for-performance (PFP) is cheap, it works, and it is perfectly attuned to the measurability of the Internet.
…Will the rise of PFP success do to the cost-per-thousand (CPM) what TiVo and personal video recorders (PVRs) are doing to the 30-second spot?”
Schroeder also asks: “What it the potential for a branding, emotive experience on what is fundamentally a transaction-oriented medium? ”
Mernit thoughts: There’s no question but that text ads and pay for performance are the new–and probably a better–paradigm for web pages. However, in a broadband universe, floating ads, towers, mini-movies, etc. have huge potential for brand and image advertising, so let’s not write them off, let’s just agree that the value–and impact–of banners and buttons is diminishing, quickly–not only because of cost/ROI but because of consumer fatigue and page clutter.
Another interesting question–will big online sites retain their ad viabiity as advertising networks for blogs and hyperlocal sites mature? The growth of saleable alternatives may do more to reshape the current online ad market than text ads.”